All content copyright © 2010-2024 Frank Revelo, www.frankrevelo.com
As with my previous discussion of Ukraine-Russia war, purpose of this document is to present my views in written form so that people can find out what I think about this controversial topic without engaging me in unpleasant email exchanges or in-person arguments. This document dates from Oct 2023, shortly after war began.
Palestine (including territories officially named Israel, Gaza, West Bank) was originally populated by Palestinians, who are an Arab speaking mix of Muslims and Christians. Then Jews from Europe and other Arab countries moved to Palestine, encouraged by the British who controlled this area prior to World War 2. Many of these Jews were fleeing persecution where they came from and had nowhere else to go. (Some Jewish immigrants did have options for where to live and simply preferred Palestine for religious or other ideological reasons.) There were conflicts between Jewish immigrants and indigenous Palestinians. Jews won most of these conflicts. Israel, which is dominated by Jews, currently includes majority of what was formerly known as Palestine and many Israelis want to incorporate all of former Palestine into state of Israel. Most descendants of original Palestinians are not Israeli citizens and not allowed to live in Israel but rather are confined to what amount to miserably overcrowded concentration camps, and each year Israeli settlers take more of what little land remains in hands of Palestinians, thus increasing crowding in these concentration camps. And Israelis make life miserable for Palestinians in other ways.
In Oct 2023, Hamas freedom fighters broke loose from Gaza concentration camp and killed large numbers of Israel soldiers and civilians. Israel launched counterattack, killing large numbers of Hamas soldiers and Palestinian civilians. Israel has vowed to exterminate Hamas entirely. War is ongoing as I write, with both sides committing war crimes.
Relations between Israel and Palestinians are so poisoned at this point that neither one state solution (Israel incorporates Gaza and West Bank, Palestinians are given Israeli citizenship) nor two state solution (Israel removes settlements from West Bank, merged Gaza and West Bank become independent Palestinian state) are viable in the foreseeable future. Israel cannot be defeated by Hamas or other Palestinian resistance groups because Israel has nuclear weapons and backing of USA. Only possible outcomes are thus either continuation of miserable situation for Palestinians (possibly combined with miserable situation for Jews, if Muslim states decide to sponsor long lasting rocket/drone war by Hamas and other Palestinian resistance groups against Israel) or expulsion/extermination of Palestinians from Gaza and West Bank, followed by Israel incorporating those areas and repopulating with Jewish settlers.
Extermination/genocide of Palestinians is beyond limits of civilized discussion so can be dismissed immediately. That leaves two options: (a) endless misery for Palestinians as concentration camp inmates inside of apartheid state; (b) ethnic cleansing via expulsion/emigration of Palestinians from Israel. In my opinion, latter is best solution for USA, Israel, and even Palestinians, provided suitable new home for Palestinians can be found.
Currently, there are about 5 million Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank. At $100,000 per person, total of $500 billion required to relocate Palestinians to new home. Money would be spent over number of years, say five. Some money would be disbursed as payments to Palestinian workers to build permanent USA military base in Syria/Jordan. Rest of money would go to building city for Palestinian exiles to live in. USA spent more than $1 trillion on its long war in Iraq and its continuing "peace keeping" mission in Syria and has gotten very little in return. By comparison, $500 billion for permanent base in Syria/Jordan would be good value for money spent.
Obviously, $500 billion might be overestimate, but better to overestimate than underestimate when determining practicality of peaceful versus war solution to problem.
Syrians and Jordanians will no doubt be unhappy at permanent USA military base in their countries, however Syrians and Jordanians are already unhappy about Israeli mistreatment of Palestinians. Combined GDP of Lebanon, Syria and Jordan is currently about $200 billion, so $500 billion of spending over 5 years or so to build proposed USA military base, plus city for Palestinian emigrants, would be enormous economic boost to that troubled region. Military base would then provide continuing economic boosts because of salaries paid to Palestinians workers. Some of 5 million would work on military base, others could be put to work in light manufacturing or otherwise employed to make Syria/Jordan/Lebanon a permanent and reasonably prosperous USA ally.
USA has long tried to maintain good relations with both Israel and Muslim world. Because of political strength of USA Jews and other USA citizen supporters of Israel, USA is currently sacrificing good relations with Muslim world for sake of Israel. But Israel has population of about 10 million versus almost 200 times as many Muslims (about 2 billion or 25% of world population), and Israel has limited natural resources whereas Muslim world controls much of world's oil and gas reserves and possibly vast quantities of other vital resources. Just as USA involvement in Ukraine pushed Russia into alliance with China, USA involvement in Israel will likely push Muslims into joining Russia/China alliance. Long-term cost of alienating Muslim world is thus likely to be far higher than $500 billion up front plus ongoing costs of huge USA military base in Syria/Jordan. Furthermore, USA is already spending huge amounts on other military bases in the Middle East, and those bases could be abandoned in favor of this single and permanent base in Syria/Jordan, which would be more secure than these other bases, because closer to USA allies in Europe and next door to USA ally Israel.
Aircraft carriers and other surface ships in Persian Gulf are very vulnerable compared to land forces supplied via Mediterranean. Assuming construction of pipelines from oil/gas fields around Persian Gulf to port of Haifa in Israel, then sea tanker transport of oil/gas from Persian Gulf through Suez Canal becomes unnecessary, thus increasing European energy security, because reduced threat from Iran (backed by Russia and China). Therefore argument can be made that Europe should bear part of cost of military base and Palestinian relocation in Syria/Jordan, and base could be NATO instead of USA only.
Türkiye has long been an unreliable USA ally and is becoming increasingly unreliable as time goes on. But Türkiye cannot be easily manipulated by USA because of its size and because it can ally with and be supplied by Russia and Iran if USA attempts to apply pressure. Whereas Syria, Jordan and Lebanon are small and fragmented ethnically, so easy for USA to use divide and conquer tactics to keep them under control, using Palestinians to provide bulk of peace keeping manpower. Creating new Kurdistan from Kurdish areas of Syria and northern Iraq and then adding this new Kurdistan to Syria, Jordan and Lebanon alliance is another possibility worth considering. Türkiye's bargaining power would be greatly diminished by huge USA/NATO military base directly to south. In particular, implied threats by Türkiye to ally with Russia and Iran could be met by implied threats to expand Kurdistan north into Kurdish areas currently part of Türkiye. Note that money currently spent on USA/NATO presence in Türkiye could be reallocated to proposed military base in Syria/Jordan, thus reducing still further cost of this new base.
Israel can also bear some of cost of relocating Palestinians and/or Israel can be pressured to give up its nuclear weapons because huge NATO base next door makes nukes unnecessary. Nuclear weapons in Israel is liability for USA, in my opinion, because logic of nuclear war says better to threaten bring down house on everyone's heads versus just your own and that of your enemy. That is, Israel might threaten to nuke USA, Russia, China, India, France, etc, if feeling threatened enough to contemplate using nukes against Iran, thus raising stakes around world. Unlikely scenario, but better to anticipate and eliminate in advance possibility of this scenario ever arising.
Even though it might appear from my Ukraine war document (where I recommended that Ukraine become Russia military vassal, similar to relationship between Canada and USA) that I support Russian interests over those of USA, in fact my recommendation for Ukraine was primarily motivated by what is good long-term for USA. USA does not need to be in Ukraine (or Finland or Baltic states or Moldova), though it may want to be there. Similarly, Russia does not need to be in Syria, though it may want to be there. By redirecting resources USA is currently using to harass Russia in Ukraine (and Finland, Baltic states, Moldova, etc) to building military base and relocating Palestinians in Syria/Jordan, USA could push Russia out entirely from Syria and simultaneously begin process of mending relations with Muslim world.
What Israel did and continues to do to Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank is unjust. However, this injustice is little different from other ethnic cleansings that have occurred in recent memory: European settlers dispossessed Native Americans from USA and other countries in the Americas, Nazis exterminated/expelled Jews from Germany/Poland, Muslims were driven out of parts of India during partition, ethnic cleansing throughout former Yugoslavia when it collapsed, etc, etc, etc. Injustice is bad but ongoing injustice and misery is surely worse than one-time injustice followed by giving dispossessed exiles opportunity to create new and dignified lives.
Genocide option was described above as "beyond limits of civilized discussion", however that is option Israel has chosen. Because of power of pro-Israel lobby in USA, USA has been politically unable to oppose this genocidal policy and is now associated with it, which will have serious negative consequences for future USA relations with Muslim countries worldwide.
My view is that USA should militarily intervene in Israel to: (a) force end to genocide; (b) force creation of Palestinian state; (c) forcibly demilitarize both Israel (including its nuclear weapons) and new state of Palestine; (d) put permanent USA military bases in both north (Golan heights area) and south (Negev desert) of Israel/Palestine, thereby making USA permanently responsible for military security of these states.
Military takeover of Israel should be done without warning and without asking for USA Senate approval, using Presidential authority as commander in chief of USA military. Opposition in Israel can be muted by threatening to have vocal opponents who were in any way associated with Gaza genocide (which means 99% of opponents, evidence of involvement with genocide can be fabricated against remaining 1%) arrested and put on trial for war crimes. Opposition in USA can be muted by threatening to treat vocal opponents, whether persons or organization, as terrorism supporters, because there will surely be some extremists in Israel who will be outraged by USA takeover and threaten terrorism against USA. Note that "terrorist supporter" implies loss of security clearance, placed on no-fly list for commercial aviation, possibly confiscation of USA passport, search of home by FBI agents, placed on public list of terrorism supporters, etc. Finally, fundamentalist Christian pro-Zionists in USA can be appeased by stationing some USA strategic nuclear missiles at one of proposed USA military bases in Israel/Palestine, with missile control station located in heart of Jerusalem, hence guaranteeing that Jerusalem will be destroyed in event of strategic nuclear war with Russia or China, thereby bringing about fulfillment of religious prophecies dear to these Christians.
Cost of permanent USA military occupation/protection for Israel/Palestinian can be offset by moving much of USA military presence out of Persian Gulf, where it is vulnerable to Iranian attack, to permanent bases in Israel/Palestine. USA should henceforth plan to supply military forces in Iraq and western side of Persian Gulf by land transport from Mediterranean, versus Persian Gulf sea transport. Europeans should be pressured to finance oil and gas pipelines from Persian Gulf states to port of Haifa in Israel, making their oil and gas supply from Persian Gulf less vulnerable to Iran and its allies, and diversifing their oil and gas pipeline supply away from areas vulnerable to Russia.
Islamic militants launched an attack on Syrian government forces this week from their bases in northeast Syria and will apparently soon topple the Assad regime. Militants are presumably backed by USA and Türkiye and maybe Israel as well. Because these militants are Islamic extremists, long-term cooperation with USA, Türkiye and/or Israel is unlikely. Instead, there will probably be a complete realignment of existing coalitions in the area.
Israel will complete its operations in Gaza, then proceed to ethnically cleanse West Bank, southern Lebanon, and parts of southwest Syria, so as to create expanded Israel, with demilitarized security zone in northern Lebanon and western Syria and Jordan. Palestinians and other Arabs who are ethnically cleansed from expanded Israel will be moved to this security zone.
Islamic militants will be either liquidated or driven east and switch allegiance from USA/Türkiye to Iran. Kurds in northern Iraq and northeast Syria will also switch allegiance from USA/Türkiye to Iran/Russia and then launch rebellion in Kurdish region of southeast Türkiye, which has long chafed under Turkish rule. Kurds might be assisted by remnant Islamic militants from eastern Syria, acting as mercenaries. This will be Iran's and Russia's revenge against Türkiye and its ruler Erdogan for treachery.
USA also has grievances with Erdogan, so rather than help suppress Kurdish rebellion, it will use rebellion as lever to punish Erdogan and ensure that Türkiye is henceforth an obedient vassal.
USA military intervention recommended previously had the advantage of putting Israeli nuclear weapons under USA control, thus eliminating that potential source of trouble for USA. But military intervention would have been difficult politically. Given that Syria has shown itself to be much weaker than I realized, new plan of letting Israel expand is better, provided Israel desists from trying to genocide Palestinians and gives them and other Arabs ethnically cleansed to make way for Israeli expansion opportunity to live dignified existence in security zone outside expanded Israel.
Short-term USA goals should be: 1) push Iran and Russia (and Islamic militants who cannot be liquidated) out of western Syria and Lebanon; 2) arrange for Europeans to build oil/gas pipelines from Persian Gulf to Israeli port of Haifa, so as to make European oil/gas supply less vulnerable to attack by Iran. Additional long-term USA goal should be to restore its reputation among Muslims, which has been badly damaged because of Israel's treatment thus far of Palestinians.